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Third Wave Planning is a Contact Sport

By
Deb Westphal
April 15, 2014

Screen_Shot_2015-07-10_at_5.11.10_PMFuturist Alvin Toffler defined three waves of change: First Wave – the Agrarian Age, Second Wave – the Industrial Age, and Third Wave – the Knowledge Age. Because the fundamentals vary from age to age, it stands to reason that strategic planning should also be different across the three waves.

 

Second Wave Planning – the Industrial Age

 

Second Wave strategic planning is the kind of planning most of us are familiar with. It involves taking inventory of what change has happened in the past year within a known market or customer space. The outputs tend to be goals, objectives, and initiatives, focused primarily on the next year or two. Somewhat academic in nature, second wave planning typically involves affirmations of things the organization is already doing.

 

Moving to the Third Wave – the Knowledge Age

 

Today’s organizations stand squarely in the Knowledge Age– an age in which innovation trumps standardization, courage and brains outwit order and discipline, and information is king over capital.  No longer does good strategic planning entail simply identifying goals and objectives.

 

Instead, planning in the Knowledge Agemust create imperatives – calls to action, if you will – that drive the change an organization must make to itself in order to accomplish its goals and objectives.

 

If second wave planning is talking about change, third wave planning is making it. 

 

SECOND WAVE PLANNING

THIRD WAVE PLANNING

Present to future

Future back to present

Maneuver around barriers

Remove barriers

Stove-piped within organizations

Integrated across organizations

Top-down

Collaborative from top-down and bottom-up

Planners drive and create it

Customers/stakeholders central to planning

Static, tangible product

Dynamic, virtual product

Focus on control of owned tangible resources (land, labor, capital)

Focus on taking advantage of intangible resources (e.g., knowledge, IP, innovation)

Winning strategies are declarative

Winning strategies are flexible

Moderate change from cycle to cycle

Constant acceleration, compressed cycles

Focus on the “job” at hand

Focus on delivering long-term “value”

Prove and codify

Hypothesize, test, apply, refine

Cycle is calendar-driven

Cycle is continuous and iterative

 

Making Change Happen

 

Planning for tomorrow’s success is a contact sport.  It’s a down-and-dirty, hands-on, and neck-deep process.  There is a certain degree of urgency which must be communicated to all levels of an organization’s workforce and stakeholders. Focus on imperatives rather than goals helps build buy-in for what is to come.

 

Constituents from all across the organization must be prepared to roll up their sleeves and plan for how they will manage and lead changesimultaneously in six key areas as they address their markets:

 

  • Relationships – deep customer and partner relationships to better understand current and future needs

  • Strategy – alignment around imperatives and disruptive business models

  • Structure – collaboration across business units and with partners, suppliers, and the end consumer

  • People – agile leadership and an engaged workforce

  • Process – customer-focused processes with key performance indicators that validate performance towards imperatives

  • Technology – solutions that facilitate information sharing, knowledge management, and seamless operations

 

Planning to manage and lead transformational change involves asking a few crucial questions:

 

  • How will the organization make change happen in ways that are synchronized, aligned, and mutually reinforcing?

  • What is changing around the organization that compels it to make changes in order to be ready for the future?

  • How can the company change today to take advantage of conditions that will exist in the future?

 

The status quo of strategic planning won’t propel an organization to the next level.  It won’t create the imperatives necessary to navigate a rapidly-changing world.  It won’t arm organizational leaders with an understanding of how to plan for and adapt to risks and opportunities along the way.

 

Alvin Toffler’s Third Wave is here.  And it’s time to meet it head-on! 

Deb Westphal

Deb Westphal

Deborah Westphal is a passionate humanist who has guided our era’s top minds and leaders to challenge biases, ignite ideas, and build connections and resilience for a secure and sound future. Her career spans more than 30 years in government agencies and Fortune 100 companies, and on virtually every continent. In 1999, Alvin Toffler tapped her as one of the founding members of his eponymous consulting firm, Toffler Associates. From 2007 through 2018, she served as the firm’s CEO and has since contributed her experience and knowledge as a member of the board. Through her work, she has guided notable organizations including Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Marriott, U.S. Air Force, Baxter International, Bayer, Heinz, Microsoft, Koppers, PPG, DARPA, National Security Agency, Loral Space Systems, NASA, Qwest, Verizon, and Westinghouse. Deborah’s empathetic and thought-provoking style helps readers spot patterns that signify future risks and opportunities. She’s a sought-after speaker and writer who provided the Foreword to After Shock. Her book, Convergence: Technology, Business, and the Human-Centric Future, was published in May 2021 by Unnamed Press. Find her at deborahwestphal.com.

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