At the turn of the 21st century, businesses faced the frightening unknown of Y2K. The possibility that computer systems would collapse as the clock turned over was a wake-up call. Those that had been operating with a degree of comfort and complacency faced the urgent need to think about if (and how) they could navigate and thrive if the computers we had become so dependent on toward the turn of the century didn’t work. While nothing came to pass from this fearful possibility, the preparedness was put to the test only a year later when the unimaginable happened on 9/11. Financial services firms, in particular, were slower to recover because they had not sufficiently planned for how to reconstitute their business in the event of such a catastrophe.

The security and resilience of our critical infrastructure is a long-standing national and economic security matter. I recently spoke at an Electric Transmission Conference about grid resilience as a national security challenge. A common question arose - namely, how we can help Public Utility Commissions (PUCs) understand the national security imperative? Moreover, how can they grow more favorable to rate recovery for utility owners making security and resilience investments?

The 2016 elections delivered a number of bombshells. The one top of mind for most Americans is the unexpected presidential victory for Donald Trump. (To review, just prior to the November 8 election, national polling data showed Democrats at 272, Republicans 214[1] – with Clinton’s chance of winning at 71.4% over Trump’s 28.6%.[2])

We are regularly asked about the biggest risks to critical infrastructure. Recent news headlines blare concern about Russians infiltrating US utility control rooms, child hackers laying waste to voting machines, bridge collapses that serve as a reminder to crumbling infrastructure worldwide, and extreme weather that is exacerbating a taxed, highly interdependent and increasingly fragile infrastructure ecosystem.

Every day we wake up with headlines that describe the immense difficulties we face as a society. We hear about issues with infrastructure, health care, societal expectations, technological advancements, and more. It's not possible to address these challenges linearly. The ecosystem in which we live lacks sufficient controls to isolate the complexity of each issue. Gaining the perspective and understanding necessary to create real solutions requires a holistic, integrated approach that takes into account individual interests, social challenges, and active investment in a resilient future. 

A slew of recent events has raised the question about the best ways for organizations to prepare for unexpected but inevitable events. Human nature – and therefore corporate nature, pushes us to rely heavily on the comfort of the absolutes that live in the rearview mirror. Even with the influence of sophisticated predictive analytics, planning for the future too often begins with a backward look and ends with the current state. Events throughout history remind us of the precariousness of such a shortsighted approach.

“You’re only as secure as your weakest link.”

Caitlin Durkovich, Infrastructure Security Expert

Toffler Associates interviewed hundreds of subject matter experts to develop a perspective on the Future of Security and Protection. Combined with our deep understanding of drivers shaping the future and our ALTERNATE FUTURES ® scenario planning approach, we have begun to imagine what security and protection will look like in 2026.